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Romola Davenport

Reconsidering the drivers of population change

Thursday, July 31st, 2025

Alice Reid & Romola Davenport

The world’s population has exploded since the 18th century, from perhaps 1 billion in 1800 to over 8 billion today. The usual story is that this extraordinary growth was caused by dramatic falls in mortality. But research at Campop has shown that, at least in England, fertility has actually played a larger role than mortality in regulating population growth. 

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Was Malthus right?

Thursday, July 17th, 2025

Romola Davenport

Malthusianism is widely used to describe the belief that (1) human populations grow faster than the resources on which they depend, and (2) that the main way in which population is prevented from outstripping resources is by the ‘positive check’ of mortality, resulting in the most extreme circumstances in ‘Malthusian crises’ (famine and war) 

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From past to present: the persistence of regional inequalities in survival, health and reproduction in England and Wales

Thursday, July 10th, 2025

Hannaliis Jaadla, Alice Reid, Eilidh Garrett and Romola Davenport 

In terms of mortality, the UK currently stands out as one of the most regionally unequal countries in Europe. The divide between local authorities is stark: the gap in life expectancy at birth between the country’s wealthiest and poorest areas is around ten years. These figures reflect broader disparities that go far beyond health, revealing deep-seated structural imbalances in the country’s economic and social fabric.  

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When we don’t have a cure or a vaccine, what works?

Thursday, April 24th, 2025

Romola Davenport

When the covid-19 pandemic struck in 2020 there was no stockpile of coronavirus vaccines, and no cure. Instead, governments were forced to fall back on a repertoire of very traditional measures to control epidemics: surveillance, lockdowns, quarantines, and cordons sanitaire. To many people’s surprise, these measures were quite effective in the early stages of the pandemic. Countries that implemented strict quarantines, such as Australia and New Zealand, avoided large outbreaks. In countries with high levels of infection, lockdowns were followed by falling case numbers and deaths 

Did similar strategies help to control other infectious diseases in the past, before vaccines and antibiotics?  

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The first urban society

Thursday, October 31st, 2024

Romola Davenport

In 2007 the United Nations announced an historic milestone: the world had become decisively urban, with half the global population living in towns and cities. This represented a dramatic reversal of historic norms, when 80-90 percent of people worked and lived in the countryside. And this unprecedented shift from rural to urban areas shows no sign of abating – indeed, the UN predicts that all future population growth will be urban 

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Why were Hansel and Gretel not English?

Thursday, August 29th, 2024

Romola Davenport

Berhardina Midderigh-Bokhorst and Smith’s Fine Arts Publishing N.V. – The Hague. Hansel and Gretel (1937). Image credit: Russell-Cotes Art Gallery & Museum.

In the story of Hansel and Gretel, a famine drives a father to abandon his children in the woods, where they discover a house made of gingerbread and a cannibal witch. In the Magic Porridge Pot tale, a young girl forced by poverty to search for food in the woods and hedgerows is given a magic pot that produces abundant staple food on command.

These types of stories about hunger and famine abound in the folklore of most European societies, and embody folk memories of food scarcity. However, as the historian John Walter noted, these tropes are curiously absent from English fairy tales. Why? 

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Three score and ten?

Thursday, August 15th, 2024

Romola Davenport & Jim Oeppen

Campop’s studies of mortality suggest that, in England, average life expectancy at birth varied between 35 and 40 years in the centuries between 1600 and 1800It is a common misconception that, when life expectancy was so low, there must have been very few old peopleIn fact, the most common age for adult deaths was around 70 years, in line with the Biblical three score years and ten. So what does life expectancy actually measure?

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