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Publication plans

Publication plans

The Occupational Structure of Britain c.1379-1911 project was begun by Leigh Shaw-Taylor and Tony Wrigley in 2000 and first received funding in 2003. The fundamental aim of the project has been a quantitative reconstruction of the occupational structure of the economy from the late medieval period to the outbreak of the First World War. We have spent 14 years on a series of mammoth data collection exercises and devising solutions to methodological problems inherent in attempting to produce reliable estimates of labour force distributions from multiple sources at a variety of geographical scales. We are now in a position to start publishing finalised accounts of the results on male occupational structure (we have a parallel exercise on women's work). An interim account of the 1700-1870 period, Shaw-Taylor, L. and Wrigley, E.A., 'Occupational Structure and Population Change', in: Floud, R., Humphries, J., Johnson, P. (eds) The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain: Volume I, 1700-1870. 4th ed. was published in 2014 and many other outputs (one book, 6 book chapters, 17 journal articles, numerous working papers and 8 articles or book chapters forthcoming) have been published from the project. Below we have listed our publications plans under four headings. Firstly, publications now in progress and near completion. Secondly, our immediate publication plans (for the next two years) deriving from the datasets collected thus far. Third, we have listed three monographs, which hope to be able to publish in the medium term (3-5 years) but for which more data collection is required and for which we have made a further bid for funding. Fourth, we have indicated longer term plans for publication which may require a final round of data collection on male occupations for the period 1413-1700.

SECTION 1. PUBLICATIONS IN PROGRESS AND NEARING COMPLETION.

1. Shaw-Taylor, L., 'Occupational Structure and the Escape from Malthusian Constraints in England and Wales, 1381-1911', in: Smith, R.M. and Wrigley, E.A. (eds.) Population Histories in Context (forthcoming, CUP, 2018)

This book chapter provides a preliminary overview of the first very long-run findings of the project. Some of these finds are detailed more fully in other papers listed below. These include (i) that agriculture accounted for approaching 80% of the male labour force in the late C14th (ii) there was very modest growth of the secondary sector through to the early sixteenth century (iii) the key period for the growth of the secondary sector was c.1550-c.1700. (iv) the secondary sectors share of employment was remarkable stable 1700-1911 (v) the major growth sector in employment shares 1700-1911 was the tertiary sector (vi) female participation rates in the market economy declined very sharply around 1800 (vii) productivity growth in the secondary sector was much higher during the industry revolution that the national accounts literature (whether Harley-Crafts or Broadberry et al currently suggests). All these developments are discussed in the context of a staged sequence of escapes from Malthusian constraints between the fourteenth and nineteenth centuries.

2. Saito, O., and Shaw-Taylor, L., (eds.) Occupational Structure and Industrialization in a Comparative Perspective.

The book will contain eighteen country chapters (Belgium, Bulgaria, China, Denmark, England and Wales, Germany, Egypt, France, Japan, India, Italy, Korea, the Netherlands, the Ottoman Empire/Turkish Republic, Russia/Soviet Union, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, the United States) written by country specialists and a set of thematic essays covering topics such as by-employment, female occupations, the importance of the tertiary sector and so on. The datasets underlying the book will be made available online in digital form. A more detailed description of the book including a full list of chapters and authors is available. Three key findings can be mentioned here. First, the deep-seated scholarly orthodoxy that the onset of modern economic growth is accompanied by an increase in the share of the labour force in the secondary sector and then at a later date the share of the tertiary sector begins to grow (Petty's Law) has to be rejected as only one country out nineteen (Germany) actually follows this pattern. Second, in some cases, most notably Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands, the US before 1900, the secondary sector grew very little or not at all during the transition to modern economic growth. Essentially this was because labour productivity growth was so rapid in the secondary sector that the structure of output could shift dramatically to the secondary sector without a parallel shift in the structure of the labour force. Third, in many countries tertiary-sector employment increased significantly with the growth of manufacturing and, in some cases, without industrialisation. The focus of this book will be on the changes in aggregate occupational structure associated with industrialization and the transition to modern economic growth.

3. Sugden, K., 'Clapham revisited: The transference of the worsted industry from Norfolk to the West Riding, c. 1700-1851'

Abstract to follow

4. Sugden, K., 'The decline of the Norwich worsted industry, c. 1700-1800'

Abstract to follow

5. Sugden, K., Keibek, S.A.J., Shaw-Taylor, L., 'Adam Smith revisited: coal and the location of the woollen manufacture in England before mechanization, c.1500-1820'

Abstract
This study examines the production of English woollens, the manufacturing staple of the economy for centuries before cotton came to dominance in circa 1800. Occupations abstracted from the Court of Common Pleas, 1483-1524 are used to identify the major woollen counties, mainly those in southern England and Yorkshire. Probate records, 1601-1801, indicate that the onset of textile de-industrialization of these southern counties occurred during the first half of the seventeenth century. The industry moved north and concentrated in a small number of places on the
coalfield. The shift to Yorkshire, 150 years or more before the introduction of coal-fuelled steam power, was not driven by mechanization but by the need for cheap space heating, particularly for weaving. The data concur with the views of Adam Smith. The need for coal, and the switch from an organic to an inorganic economy in textile manufacture occurred decades before the classical period of the industrial revolution, 1780-1850.

6. Field, J., Shaw-Taylor, L., 'The male occupational structure of London 1700-1881. A complex picture of London's development'

Abstract
This paper presents male occupational estimates for London from the early eighteenth to the later nineteenth century. The early eighteenth century data derives from the marriage registers of the Fleet Prison. In this period about half of all London marriages were celebrated in the jurisdiction of the Fleet Prison. A comparison with occupational data for parishes whose baptism registers records occupations with men marrying in the Fleet from the same parishes provides the basis for re-calibrating the Fleet data. The Fleet data are then compared with data c.1817 drawn from all of London's baptism registers and with the 1851 and 1881 censuses. The paper thus presents the first ever estimates of London's occupational structure before 1841. This allows us to identify the range and scale of economic activities for the first time. London remained the largest manufacturing centre in Britain throughout, but the whole period was characterised by a very substantial relative shift away from manufacturing to the service sector. The new estimates of London's occupational structure are also an essential element in the figures presented in paper 7, below.

7. Buyst, E., Shaw-Taylor, L., 'An Anglo-Belgian comparison of occupational structures during industrialization.'

Abstract
New occupational estimates provide a greatly enhanced quantitative underpinning for international comparisons of economic development. This paper is the first detailed and systematic comparison of the occupational structures of two countries during their industrial revolutions. The paper compares the sectoral and sub-sectoral evolution of the labour force in England and Wales between ca. 1817 and 1911 to that of Belgium in the 1846-1910 period. Although the time periods in both countries do not completely overlap they capture a similar phenomenon, the onset of modern economic growth and its impact on structural change in employment shares. In England and Wales modern economic growth was first achieved in the 1830s and the same process reached Belgium in the 1850s. Simon Kuznets argued that the emergence of modern economic growth coincided with the massive transfer of labour out of the primary sector into non-agricultural activities. This was clearly not true for the world's first two industrial revolutions. In England and Wales the major structural shift from agricultural to secondary sector employment was long over by the 1830s (it was actually over by 1700). Similarly, Belgium had reached very high levels of secondary sector employment already before the 1850s, although the precise timing of this earlier shift has not yet been documented. In both countries the secondary sector shares remained relatively flat between the 1840s and the 1910s.

8. You, X., 'The regional diversity of female employment in nineteenth century England and Wales.'

Abstract
This article uses the 100 percent sample of 1881 Census Enumerators' Books, which contains c. 26 million records of individual level data, to investigate the regional diversity of female labour force participation at parish level. By analysing adult women in general as well as comparing adult women in terms of marital status and presence of infant, this article shows significant spatial variation in female labour force participation rates in England and Wales in the nineteenth century. More importantly, the spatial patterns of female labour force participation suggest that the demand side of the female labour market, particularly the availability of female employment opportunities, played the most fundamental role in determining female labour force participation and its regional diversity.

9. You, X., 'The breadwinner-homemaker model revisited: mother's work in nineteenth century England and Wales'

Abstract
This article uses the 100 percent sample of 1881 Census Enumerators' Books to study mother's work in nineteenth century England and Wales. Given the rich information contained in the CEBs, this study manages to link mother's work to various household demographic as well as socioeconomic characters such as husband's employment, number of children, sex of children, birth order of children, and household structure. Furthermore, this study also places mother's work in the context of local economy. It shows while the spatial pattern of mothers' labour force participation was overwhelmingly determined by the local demand for female labour, the incentives and constraints arising from the demographic and socioeconomic conditions in the household could still have a notable impact on mother's labour force participation within the context of local economy. The results emerging from this study suggest the rigid conceptual framework of breadwinner-homemaker economy after the mid-nineteenth century formulated by de Vries can receive little empirical support. The many facets and determinants of married women's work need fuller consideration.

10. Bogart, D., Alvarez, E., You, X., Satchell, A.E.M., Shaw-Taylor, L., 'Railways and growth: evidence from nineteenth century England and Wales.'

Abstract
How do transport improvements affect the growth and spatial structure of population and employment? This paper answers these questions in the context of nineteenth century England and Wales. It analyzes the effect of railways on population and employment growth following a large expansion in the railway network during the 1840s. Endogeneity is addressed using a hypothetical network minimizing construction costs between large towns in 1801. Results show that population, secondary, and tertiary employment growth were significantly higher near railway stations and agriculture was significantly lower. Moreover, larger growth effects are found in higher density localities and with coal, suggesting railways magnified agglomeration economies and natural resource advantages. A final counterfactual shows population and employment growth would have been 7 to 9% lower from 1851 to 1881 if the network remained at its smaller 1841 level.

This paper will be submitted to a top five economics journal shortly and is currently available as a working paper.

11. Smith, R.M., Shaw-Taylor, L., Wrigley, E.A., 'How agricultural was the English population in 1381?'

Abstract to follow

12. Keibek, S.A.J., 'Achieving coverage whilst eliminating bias: combining probate records and parish registers to recreate the male occupational structure of England and Wales 1600-1850'

Abstract
Parish registers are an excellent source of information on male occupations, particular after Rose's Act of 1812 made recording fathers' occupations mandatory for Anglican baptisms. Before Rose's Act too, fathers' occupations were reliably recorded in a sample of parishes. However, this sample provides insufficient geographic coverage for reliable occupational estimates at sub-national levels, particularly for the second half of the eighteenth century. Moreover, before 1695, parish registers outside London are virtually silent about occupations. Male occupations are also often recorded in probate documents, which offer superior geographic and temporal coverage. However, the probate record suffers from a major weakness of its own: a severe bias towards capital-intensive, well-paying occupations. This paper presents a method for using the strengths of both data sources to neutralise the weaknesses in the other: by employing the parish register data to calibrate the probate data, and by then utilising the (now no longer biased) probate data to fill the gaps in the parish register data. In this way, reliable national, regional, and local male occupational estimates can be established for England and Wales throughout the 1600-1850 time period.

13. Saito, O., Shaw-Taylor, L., 'The Sectoral Allocation of Labourers 1817-1911'

Abstract
The sectoral nature of the work performed by a significant minority of male labourers recorded in the British censuses is not specified, making it difficult to fit them into the overall occupational structure. This paper describes a methodology to allocate these unspecified labourers to occupational (sub)sectors. It uses the fact that consecutive censuses differed in the types of labourers which were specified. By determining the ratio between specified labourers of type X and their employers in one census year, and by applying those ratios to data in census years in which labourers of type X are not specified, it is possible to allocate all labourers to (sub)sectors throughout the census period. Applying those same ratios to the pre-census parish register data, in which virtually all labourers are unspecified, makes it is possible to allocate those labourers to occupational sectors too, at least at the national level. The resulting labourer allocation in 1817 confirms closely to the results of a very different allocation approach, presented in paper 14, below.

14. Keibek, S.A.J., 'The Sectoral Allocation of Labourers 1600-1817'

Abstract
British historical sources on occupational information such as censuses, parish registers, and probate records describe many men with the unhelpfully vague term of 'labourer'. This paper introduces a new method to allocate these labourers to occupational (sub-)sectors, a prerequisite for creating comprehensive and accurate historical occupational structures. The new method leads to a significant correction on the allocation shares used in the national accounts literature. Its results at national level in agreement close with those from another new approach, developed by Saito and Shaw Taylor and presented in paper 13, above. However, it has an important advantage over that approach: it is capable of allocating labourers at all geographic levels, and can thus also generate local and regional occupational estimates.

15. Keibek, S.A.J., 'By-employments on the eve of the British Industrial Revolution: a reappraisal using wealth-bias-corrected probate inventories'

Abstract
Based on the evidence from probate inventories, by-employments have generally been presumed ubiquitous amongst early modern Englishmen. This would appear to present a significant problem for estimates of the contemporary male occupational structure, since the sources on which these estimates are based describe men almost always by their principal employment only. This paper argues that this problem is vanishingly small, for three reasons. Firstly, the probate inventory evidence is shown to exaggerate the incidence of by-employments as a result of its inherent bias towards wealthy estates. A new, general method is presented which is capable of removing wealth bias from the probate inventory record. By applying this method, it is shown that the 'raw' probate record exaggerates by-employment incidence by a factor of two. Secondly, it is demonstrated that even after wealth-bias correction, the probate record greatly overstates by-employment incidence as most of the traces of subsidiary activities in the inventories actually point to the employments of other members of the household, not to by-employments of the inventoried male household head. Thirdly, even if one ignored this and assumed that they did, in fact, point to his by-employments, they are shown to have been relatively small in economic importance compared to the principal employment, and to necessitate only a very minor adjustment of the principal-employment-only male occupational structure.

16. Keibek, S.A.J, Shaw-Taylor, L., Wrigley, E.A., 'Goodbye to Gregory King: The occupational structure of England and Wales c.1700'

Abstract
This paper explores sources of occupational information on which historians have, hitherto, based their analyses for early-modern and early-industrial England and Wales, in particular the social tables by Gregory King, Joseph Massie, Patrick Colquhoun, and others. Using Gregory King's table as an example, it demonstrates why these are unreliable sources of occupational information and why it is not surprising that they have given rise to a wide range of interpretations. It confronts these interpretations with four independent occupational estimates for the turn of the seventeenth century, which are in mutual agreement despite being derived in quite different ways from alternative, superior sources of occupational information – in particular, baptism registers and probate documents.

17. Shaw-Taylor, L., Keibek, S.A.J., Wrigley, E.A., Newton, G., Satchell, A.E.M., 'The male occupational structure of England and Wales, 1700-1911'

Abstract
This paper presents the results of applying the approaches described in the methodological papers above (12-15) to the data introduced in paper 16 and combined with the London figures from paper 1. It provides two centuries of estimates for the male occupational structure of England and Wales, covering the (run-up to the) transition to modern economic growth, at twenty-year time intervals, at the level of sectors (primary, secondary, tertiary) and sub-sectors (clothing, textiles, building and construction, transport, etcetera), at national, regional, and local scales. It demonstrates that the structural shift in the male labour force from agriculture to the secondary sector was essentially complete by 1700. The classic Industrial Revolution period re-emerges as a period of much more rapid technologically driven labour productivity growth in the secondary sector in contrast to the labour-intensive industrialization which came before. Structural change occurred during the period, particularly after 1820, but it was the tertiary sector, not the secondary sector which was the prime beneficiary of the relative decline of the agricultural labour force.

18. Shaw-Taylor, L, You, X., 'Estimating female occupational structure before the 1851 census'

Abstract
However illuminating, the male occupational estimates presented in paper 6 provide only a partial perspective of the contemporary labour force. Female occupational data are rare before the mid-nineteenth century but this paper presents a way to overcome this problem, using the ratios between the numbers of male and female workers in the later-nineteenth-century censuses, and applying these to the male-only data for earlier years. Where there are clear grounds for believing that these ratios would not hold good at earlier dates, data from primary and secondary sources are used to adjust the census-derived ratios to contemporary conditions – for example in the case of textiles, in which female-to-male ratios varied over time as a result of technological and other developments. One major finding is that female participation rates declined dramatically with the mechanisation of spinning around 1800 and did not recover their late eighteenth century levels until the second half of the twentieth century. This has substantial implications for the standard of living debate.

SECTION TWO. SHORT-TERM PUBLICATION PLANS

19. Crafts, N.F.R., Keibek, S.A.J., Shaw-Taylor, L., 'Implications of new occupational structure estimates for the national accounts framework'

Abstract
For its occupational inputs, the national accounts' literature has traditionally relied on the social tables, discussed (and discredited) in paper 5 above. The large structural shift in labour force from agriculture to the secondary sector suggested by the social tables was a key factor in the low secondary-sector productivity growth estimates during the Industrial Revolution, as presented in the dominant national accounts' narrative over the last thirty years. However, the new occupational estimates show that this structural shift was completed long before the start of the Industrial Revolution. This paper investigates the implications of the new data for the Crafts-Harley account of economic growth during the Industrial Revolution. One major finding is that productivity growth in the secondary sector during the Industrial Revolution was far higher either than the Crafts-Harley account or the more recent revisions by Broadberry et al.

20. Field, J., 'Occupations and Crime in Seventeenth-Century Southwark'

Abstract
During the seventeenth century the most dynamic areas of London, in terms of both population and economy, were its suburbs. One of the most long-standing and important was Southwark, which was one of the largest urban areas in England in its own right (even in the early nineteenth century it was still England's fifth largest urban area) as well as a major transport hub and centre of manufacturing. This paper utilises recognisances to reconstruct Southwark's male occupational structure. These legal documents, which bound individuals to appear at Quarter Sessions, recorded residential and occupational detail of men accused of offences and those who stood surety for them. As well as giving us an insight into patterns of crime in early modern Southwark (where violent offences increased), they also eluciadate occupational patterns. To ensure they are representative the recognisances were recalibrated against Southwark's baptism and burial registers. To see how Southwark's economy developed over the next two centuries, the seventeenth-century findings are then compared to eighteenth-century data from paper 6, above, and nineteenth-century data from baptism registers and the censuses. This paper shows that although Southwark had fame as a centre of leisure and transport, it was manufacturing that consistently remained the most important employer of men in early modern Southwark.

21. Field, J., 'The Economic Development of Early Modern Westminster'

Abstract
Westminster was the political centre of England as well as one of the most important areas of consumption and culture in Europe. By 1700 it was the second biggest urban area in the entire Atlantic Archipelago. Despite its importance, Westminster's changing occupational structure in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries is not well understood. This is because its parish registers did not consistently record occupations during this period. For the seventeenth century, this paper uses the same source as paper 20, above; recognisances to appear at Quarter Sessions (as well as the important occupational information they reveal, they also show that violent crime in Westminster increased over the seventeenth century, whilst larceny and public order offences remained steady). Combined with the figures for paper 6, above, this paper finds that the service sector doubled in relative terms from 30% of the male workforce in the 1620s to over 60% in 1881, with manufacturing decreasing concurrently at the same time, with textiles and clothing declining particularly preciptously. In absolute terms, the tertiary sector increased in size by a factor of fourteen from c. 1622 to 1881 (at the same time the secondary sector increased by a factor of four).

22. Field, J., 'The Male Occupational Structure of Seventeenth-Century London'

Abstract
This paper offers the first new estimates for the occupational structure of early modern London for over thirty years. It draws on data that covers the entire seventeenth-century metropolis, which is crucial because suburban areas were the fastest-growing areas of London during this period. The figures presented in papers 20 and 21, above, showed how recognisances combined with parish registers provide a more complete understanding of how London's economy changed across the seventeenth century. This paper finds that manufacturing did decline across the 1600s, but that this trend slowed during the second half of the century, primarily due to the building boom that followed the Great Fire of 1666. At this time the service sector increased in size, with transport in particular growing the most rapidly.

23a. Field, J., 'Who did the servants serve? The structure of service in England during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries'

Abstract
This paper will investigate the structure of servant-keeping in England from the household perspective during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. My earlier studies of wages of servants showed that demand-side factors were the key determinants of servant wages from 1700 to 1860. Therefore, as the number of servants in a household is clearly a good measure of demand for servants, then this will further illuminate what type of households were more likely to pay higher wages to servants. The first part of this paper investigates levels of domestic and agricultural servant-keeping in England using Campop's collection of local population listings produced between 1692 and 1821. These listings offer a unique level of detail of household structure, unavailable before the Census began systematically recording individual occupations for men and women in 1851. This shows the impact of the occupation, status, and location of a household on its propensity to keep live-in servants, and precisely in what types of household there was a decline in keeping domestic servants, or indeed if it remained constant or even grew over the long eighteenth century. This show that there was a significant decline in servant-keeping during the long eighteenth century, but the rate at which this happened varied considerably by the profile of the household, and variables such as its occupational status, gender and social status of the head of household, the number of people in the household, where the household was located, or if it was rural or urban. In particular, this paper will show that households where the head was employed in the service sector tended to continue to employ live-in servants at high levels throughout the nineteenth century. This paper will also examine if, as has often been theorized, service was becoming increasingly feminized. It will also analyse differences between the types of household that employed male and female servants. This will further illuminate the gendered division of labour between male and female servants and show what kind of work they may have done. This paper will use regression analysis to determine the interplay between these different variables, and which were the most significant. In the second part of this paper this paper will compare the places examined in the first part will be compared to the 1881 Census Enumerators' Books. As this source provides a high level of detail for the whole country, it will provide an excellent vantage point from which to look back at the previous two centuries, and showing which (if any) groups or places were more likely to continue to house live-in servants at a time when this practice was thought to be in decline. This paper will show how the experience of both being a live-in servant and keeping one changed as England experienced the Industrial Revolution, transforming its society and economy.

23. Erickson, A.L. and Stephenson, J., 'Contracting in 18th-century London'

Abstract to follow

24. Erickson, A.L. and Stephenson, J., 'Businesswomen in 18th-century London'

Abstract to follow

25. Keibek, S.A.J., Shaw-Taylor, L., Wrigley, E.A., 'Regional dynamics, functional concentration, and economic growth'

Abstract
This paper moves the discussion from national to the regional and local scales. It demonstrates that developments at these lower geographical levels differed greatly from the national ones, particularly during the lead-up to and early stages of the Industrial Revolution in the eighteenth century. It shows that this period was characterised by rapid regional and, even, local specialisation, enabled by an ever improving transport infrastructure. The eighteenth century now appears as a period of dramatic regional change. A few regions industrialised rapidly but most of the country underwent substantial de-industrialisation. The role of small, highly specialist regions as incubators of technological innovation and novel forms of economic organisation is well-known in present-day economies. Since the new estimates show that strong regional specialisation clearly preceded the Industrial Revolution, it raises the intriguing question as to the degree to which a uniquely decentralised yet well-integrated early-eighteenth-century economy was instrumental or even crucial in Britain's precocious and pioneering transition to modern economic growth.

26. Keibek, S.A.J., Shaw-Taylor, L., 'The male occupational structure of England 1600-1700'

Abstract
The Industrial Revolution has traditionally been associated with a structural shift in the labour force from agriculture to industry. However, as shown in paper 7, above, this shift was, in fact, essentially complete by 1700. This paper provides new national and regional occupational estimates for the male labour force in England and Wales, demonstrating that the seventeenth century saw a rapid and geographically ubiquitous increase in the share of men and women employed in the secondary sector. This created fertile ground for the search for labour-saving technologies in the secondary sector, which found its fruition in the British Industrial Revolution. The structural shift in employment from agricultural to the secondary sector at national level across the seventeenth century is in marked contrast to the eighteenth century shift from agriculture to services. The spatially ubiquitous pattern of industrialization in the seventeenth century contrasts with the diveregent regional patters of de-industrialization and industrialization seen in the eighteenth century.

27. Shaw-Taylor, L., Keibek, S.A.J., Wrigley, E.A., 'The occupational structure of Britain, 1381-1911'

Abstract
This paper summarises the findings of earlier papers and extends their conclusions and implications. Change between 1381 and c.1550 was slow but perceptible. The secondary sector grew as consumption patterns diversified somewhat away from the overwhelming dominance of food production but tertiary sector growth was very modest. From the middle of the sixteenth century the pace of development changed gear. The period 1550-1700 saw high productivity agriculture facilitating a process of 'low tech' labour-intensive industrialisation in almost all parts of the country. In the run up to the conventional Industrial Revolution, most of the country was affected by de-industrialization while a few regions forged ahead. In the first wave of mechanisation (spinning) a substantial share of all female employment disappeared in a few decades, leading to a major decline in female participation rates with no recovery in our period (and probably not till after WWII). The new figures imply that both technological change and productivity increase were considerably higher than scholarly orthodoxy has suggested over the last 30 years (though it does not restore the Deane and Cole figures). The tertiary sector, often presumed to have been a constant share of the labour force before the mid nineteenth and generally neglected by historians, was in fact growing steadily as a share of the labour force during the early modern period and grew very rapidly over the nineteenth century. Whatever, the impact of foreign trade in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, the scale of industrialisation in 1550-1700 period started too early and was far too large to be explained by the then very modest levels of foreign trade. In the final section, we identify areas where further research is needed and planned.

28. Shaw-Taylor, L., Keibek, S.A.J., Wrigley, E.A., (eds.) Essays on the Occupational Structure of England and Wales 1381-1911 (edited book)

Abstract
Following the articles described above, we plan to publish an integrated set of essays in advance of subsequent monographic publications which will be deferred till data collection, dependent on securing further funding, has been completed. The book will aim at: (i) providing an interim summary of the projects findings over the whole period 1381-1911 (ii) providing fuller discussions of methodological issues which underpin the articles listed above than will be possible in the articles themselves. The book will have four sections. Section 1 will deal with methodological issues; section 2 will explore male occupational structure at a variety of spatial scales; section 3 will focus on female occupational structure; section four will summarise and conclude.

SECTION 3. MEDIUM TERM PUBLICATION PLANS

The collection of data on male occupations for the period 1800-1911 is complete. We have a very large body of data for the period 1600-1800 but do not have data which covers all regions of England and Wales in all sub-periods. We have applied for further funding which would allow us to (i) complete the collection of male data for the period 1600-1800 for the whole of England and Wales (ii) collect less complete data 1413-1599 with a primary focus on textile regions. This would then allows us to produce three planned monographs (planned publications 15, 16 and 17)

29. Shaw-Taylor, L., Keibek, S.A.J., Wrigley, E.A., (eds.) An historical atlas of Occupational Structure in England and Wales, 1600-1911

Abstract
Subject to securing further funding we hope to complete collection of male data for the period 1600-1911 in the near future . We would then have male data, at frequent intervals at local, regional and national scales for the entire period 1600-1911 (and for females from the mid-nineteenth century). This would allow us to publish an historical atlas covering the period 1600-1911. The atlas would have chapters on each sector and sub-sector of the economy exploring how it evolved and how its geographical distribution changed over time. This sub-sector by sub-sector approach would be a stepping stone to an interpretive monopgraph (see planned publication 16 below). In analysing the data and writing individual chapters on sub-sectors where we lack high level expertise 'in-house' we will collaborate with other scholars who have in-depth expertise on particular sub-sectors. Our initial plan is to publish the atlas in an online-only open-access format and to publish the atlas in four versions (an academic version; a version aimed at 'A' level students, a version aimed at GSCE students, and a version aimed at pre-GCSE students. An online atlas has a number of advantages over a print edition: interactive exploration of 'zoom-able' and 'clickable; maps; free and universal access; ease of updating as new data or new analyses become available; incremental publishing of chapters. Once we have sufficient content online we will explore the possibility of conventional print publication.

30. Shaw-Taylor, L., Keibek, S.A.J., Wrigley, E.A., The occupational structure of England and Wales, 1550-1911

Abstract
As with the planned publication 16, the online atlas 1600-1911, this publication will be dependent on securing a further round of funding to complete data collection of male occupational structure 1550-1911. The monograph would build on the analysis of individual sectors and sub-sectors undertaken for the online atlas and present our definitive account and interpretation of the project's findings over the period from 1550-1911.

31. Sugden, K., Keibek, S., Shaw-Taylor, L., 'The textile industries of England and Wales 1413-1911'

Abstract
This book would explore the rise and fall of textile industries and regions from the early fifteenth century through to the early twentieth century. The textile industry was most important industry in employment and export terms throughout the medieval, early modern and industrial revolution periods. It would provide the first long-term spatially comprehensive and quantified account of textile industry and would deal with all the various branches of the industry (wool, worsted, linen, hosiery, silk, cotton). For the first time it would be possible to identify (and map) precisely the shifting geography and fortunes of the various textile regions and industries and to do so over the whole period.

SECTION FOUR. LONGER-TERM PUBLICATION PLANS

The following longer term (five years or more from now) monographic outputs may require a second further research grant to complete data collection on the period 1413-1599. Details of authorship are highly provisional at this stage.

32. Shaw-Taylor, L., Keibek, Briggs, C., S.A.J., Smith, R.M., (eds.) An historical atlas of Occupational Structure in England and Wales, 1381-1600

This would parallel planned publication 16 but for the preceding period. It might simply take the form of an addition to the existing online atlas or it might form an electronic or print publication in its own right. At this stage there is too much uncertainy about what can be achieved with the available source material to make very concrete plans. It is clear that we will be able to use material from common pleas to map male occupational structure right across the C15th at a spatial scale intermediate between the vill/parish and the county, but how fine high the spatial resolution will be is not yet clear. It is also clear that we would be able to map male occupations in some counties from quarter session recognizances in the second half of the sixteenth century. Whether it will be possible to generate datasets that allow the mapping of the whole country in the sixteenth century, rather some parts of the country in some sub-periods remains to be established.

33. Shaw-Taylor, L., Keibek, S.A.J., Briggs, C., Smith, R.M., Wrigley, E.A., The Occupational Structure of England and Wales c.1381-1600.

This would parallel publication 16, but for the earlier period. It would be our summative reconstruction and interpretation of the relatively slow changes of the late medieval period and the quickening of the pace of change in the sixteenth century.

34. Shaw-Taylor, L., Keibek, S.A.J., Wrigley, E.A., The Occupational Structure of Britain c.1381-2021 and its global context: A concise account.

This would be a short concise and accessible account shorn of methodological details and aimed at a much wider audience. It would summarise the findings of the entire project to date and would extend to the treatment to the then most recent census (likely 2021) and provide global comparisons drawing from the comparative work now underway on other parts of the world.