Occupational Structure of Late Imperial China, 1738-1899*

Cheng Yang, PhD Candidate in History

Data on occupational structure, a critical parameter for quantifying the distribution of economic activity within an environment and how it changes over time, provide rich evidence about the nature of economic development. Through the combined scope of economic history and population geography, recent research on occupational structure led by Dr. Leigh Shaw-Taylor, Prof. Sir Tony Wrigley, and Prof. Osamu Saito at the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure and collaborating institutes has greatly expanded and deepened our understanding of economic developments during the long-run industrialization of England and much of the world. It is now clear that by 1700 less than half of the English workforce was working on the land, suggesting a fairly radical rethink is needed about the timing and nature of the industrial revolution^[1]. Moreover, most national economies, with both chronological and spatial heterogeneities, did not conform to a singular model of modern economic growth and structural change, as previously suggested by economists such as Colin Clark and Simon Kuznets^[2].

For China, the world's leading economy for many centuries prior to industrialisation, information on its occupational structure and whether this changed over time and varied across space is much needed. Despite extensive debates around West-East divergence in economic developments before and during the Industrial Revolution, empirical evidence on the Chinese side remains thin.

Using Xingke Tiben, a hitherto unused source for the reconstruction of China's occupational structure in the late imperial period, this PhD thesis aims to provide, for the first time in Chinese economic history, a quantitative foundation for understanding the Chinese labour force and sectors in the economy; not just for the great divergence debate but also for understanding China and the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of its economy. A newly constructed, highly reliable, comprehensive, and systematic occupational database has been created that consists of individual-level occupational data and other key variables; more than 31,000 individuals in over 8,000 randomly sampled XingkeTiben cases from the Qing Empire's 320 prefectures and 1,800 sub-counties in the late Qing dynasty (1736-1898) are recorded in the database.

The first national and regional occupational structure estimates of China that have been produced by this thesis are a complement to, rather than a replacement for national accounting frameworks that quantify standards of living. In addition, the occupational structure estimates are a key component for investigating both the production and consumption sides of the economy.

Here are examples of some recent progress of the Chinese occupational structure project. Unless stated otherwise, the source is the Chinese Occupational Database from Xingke Tiben (COD-XT) created by Cheng Yang. Work in progress. Please do not quote.

Fig. 1 Summary of the Chinese Occupational Database from Xingke Tiben

Fig. 2 Occupational observation standardisation

Fig. 3 Observed Chinese national occupational structure in 1761-70, 1821-30, 1881-90

Table. 1 Observed Chinese national occupational structure in 1761-70, 1821-30, 1881-90

Fig. 4 Observed Chinese national occupational structure compared to Occupational Structure of England & Wales* in 1750-1900 (*The occupational structure of Britain 1379-1911 project data)

Fig. 5 Observed Chinese national occupational structure compared to Occupational Structure of England & Wales* in 1380-1900 (*The occupational structure of Britain 1379-1911 project data)

Fig. 6 Observed difference in occupational structure across Chinese regions in 1740-1898

Fig. 7 Observed difference in composition of farming labour force across Chinese regions in 1740-1898 (heterogeneity in organisation of agricultural production across regions; big North-South division related to different crops)

Map 1. Share of labour force working in agriculture by prefecture in China overlaid with drainage system in 1761-1890 (essentially indicating different extent to which a region's population relied on agricultural production)

Map 2. Density of Population working in agriculture by prefecture in China overlaid with drainage system in 1761-1890 (heavily influenced by proximity to river; "industrial" Lower Yangtze has the highest agricultural population density in the country)

Fig. 8 Distribution of number of children of married couples by occupational groups (observed variation may suggest different need for labour within the household, and the different financial capability to sustain a given number of family members)

Fig. 9. Distribution of number of children of married couples by major farming groups (observed variation may suggest different need for labour within the household, and the different financial capability to sustain a given number of family members)

Fig. 10 Observed Long Run Occupational Structure of Great Lower Yangtze in 1740-1898

Fig. 11 Observed Long Run Occupational Structure of rural Great Lower Yangtze in 1740-1898

Fig. 12 Observed Long Run Occupational Structure of urban areas and market towns in Great Lower Yangtze in 1740-1898

* This study is currently receiving the generous supports from UCCL graduate research grant, Peterhouse graduate research grant, Ellen MacArthur Grant, Prince Consort Grant and Members History Grant. The author is a Chinese Scholarship Council Scholar, and a member of the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure.