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Publication plans

Publication plans

Below we have listed our current plans for further publication from a Leverhulme Trust funded project which ended on 28 February 2017 and from follow-on funding provided by: a grant from the Isaac Newton Trust, Cambridge (2017); a Cambridge Humanities Research Grant (2018)and two grants from the Keynes Fund, Cambridge (2018 and 2019). Please note that papers which have progressed as far as a presentable working paper will be found under Working Papers. Below we list our publication plans, first for journal articles, and secondly for books as of 1 April 2021. We will update this page periodically. Items at the top of the last are more advanced in preparation than those further down.

Article plans

1. Rosevear, A.R., Bogart, .L, Shaw-Taylor, L., Did turnpiking improve the quality of roads in England & Wales? New evidence using Geographical Information System mapping and contemporary reports


Infrastructure quality plays an important role in determining communications and trade. This paper studies turnpike trusts in industrialising England and investigates when and where they improved the quality of roads. It re-examines data sources, including the text in Acts of Parliament, Reports of Parliamentary Committees, returns from an 1838 turnpike survey as well as an under-exploited source, the comments made by regular road users in their diaries. GIS is used to handle the large amounts of data and give a spatial display of information. We conclude that in the first half of the 18th century the repairing of the ancient highways by turnpike trusts slowly rectified some sections of main roads that had become ruinous under Parish management. During the second part of the 18th century trusts brought many more sections of road up to a quality that contemporaries judged better than the older roads. In the 1790s investment in existing turnpikes failed to keep up with increasing traffic so by the early 1800s roads around London in particular, had deteriorated. This stimulated a fresh wave of rapid improvement in road construction by turnpike trusts guided by professional road surveyors, particularly McAdam. During this period many miles of totally new road were made to these new standards, along better alinements than the those of the ancient highways. The culmination in this wave of improvement was evidenced in the generally high rating of road quality on turnpikes in 1838.

2. Bogart, D., Shaw-Taylor, L., Dunn, O., Alvarez-Palau, E.J., 'The Coastal lighting revolution in England and Wales, 1693-1831.'


All of the research for this paper was completed as an unplanned output of the last project and a start has been made on drafting the paper. This paper will document fully, for the first time, the building of lighthouses in England and Wales 1680-1830 and the implications for coastal lighting. We make two key contributions to the literature. Firstly, whilst the increasing number of lights over time is well known (if not precisely documented) in the literature, the real revolution in coastal lighting has been entirely overlooked. We quantify, for the first time, the spectacular increase in areal coverage of coastal illumination (IMAGE 11) consequent on improved lighting technologies, which we dub the coastal lighting revolution. Second, we demonstrate that Trinity and private groups both adopted new technologies for coastal lights after 1790, but Trinity's role increased with time. Third, harbour authorities, virtually ignored in the literature to date, made crucially important contributions, but mainly through building lights for safe passage into harbours.

3. You, X., Alvarez, E., Bogart, D., Satchell, A.E.M., Shaw-Taylor, L., and Warde, P., 'A preliminary model of the transport of coal along the roads, canals, rivers, railways and coast of England and Wales in 1911.'

We are in the process of creating a model of the flow of coal along the transport network of 1911. We will do this by first using a number of datasets to (i) estimate the tonnage of coal mined in every parish with a coal mine in 1911 (ii) estimating the consumption of coal in each of the 15,000 census parishes in England and Wales (iii) building a model of all port-to-port flows of coal in the UK (iv) building a model of the flow of coal along all railway lines. We will then establish how well the four sets of estimates fit with each other and modify the various estimates and models by an iterative process. This process will include comparing the models with definitely known flows along particular sections of the transport network. When the model is finished this will give us estimates of the tonnage of coal flowing along each section of railway line; navigable river, canal, main road and between ports. The intention is then to use the model to explore the alternative costs and physical implications in routing the same parish to parish flows along the transport networks prevailing in 1680 and 1830. This will allow us to allow us to test whether the physical implications (water flow requirements, number of horses require, quantity of oats to feed those horses) were in fact physically plausible. This approach will provide a quantitative alternative to the traditional social savings approach to assessing the impact of historical transport technology/infrastructure changes. We will be able to ask (and answer) the question as to whether the flow of goods (coal in this case) could have been actually have been moved around the earlier transport networks rather than simply assuming that it was physically possible. This working paper will document the construction of the model and undertake some preliminary counterfactual exercises. Further details about the project are available.

4. Alvarez, E., Bogart, D., Dunn, O., Satchell, A.E.M., Shaw-Taylor, L., 'The cost of freight movements in the coastal shipping trade of England and Wales 1700-1910.'

This paper focuses on the extent of improvements in coastal shipping, again with a focus on the differences between the pre-steam and steam era. Coastal shipping is worthy of special attention because of its importance in the transport of coal, the main source of fuel for the industrial revolution. Following previous scholars, we use differences in coal prices between ports near the major coalfields and ports elsewhere to measure "trade costs" in coastal shipping. The trade costs include pure freight cost of crew, provisions, and ship rental along with insurance, port charges, taxes, loading & unloading costs. We have collected data on prices for coal used in domestic heating for over 50 towns at three dates c.1700, c.1840, and c.1910. Our aim is to compare the coal price gaps at each date and measure the change over time. Moreover, we plan to directly measure some of the components like taxes and port charges.

5. Bogart, D., Alvarez, E., Satchell, A.E.M., Shaw-Taylor, L., 'The social savings of pre-railway inland transport improvements in England and Wales.'

Pigot's directories c.1830 detail all the scheduled weekly road and canal services between major towns around 1830. This paper uses our network analysis model to calculate the cost and time required for all these services and journeys by road and canal in 1830. It also calculates the costs and times assuming 1680 networks and technology. The difference in total times and costs provides an estimate of the social savings from inland transport improvements. Unlike earlier estimates, it builds the savings from traffic flows between individual towns.

6. Bogart, D., Satchell, A.E.M., Rosevear, A.R., Shaw-Taylor, L. 'London's freight transport connections, 1637-1827.'

This paper revisits the changes in the capital's freight transport connections over the long-run. We focus on carrier, barge, and vessel services drawn from London directories. We estimate numbers of services and their location over time. We are particularly interested in estimating the growing share of services between northern industrial areas, East Anglia, and west country textile regions.

7. Bogart, D., Satchell, A.E.M., Rosevear, A.R., Shaw-Taylor, L. 'Turnpikes and Traffic Growth in England and Wales.'

This paper tests whether adoption of turnpikes increased road traffic or whether traffic growth led to turnpikes. It uses data on wagon and coach services stated in London directories as a measure of traffic. The routes taken by services have been linked to GIS data on road networks. It also uses GIS data on turnpike network to identify when particular roads came under the authority of the trust. A difference-in-difference estimator identifies whether the adoption of turnpikes increased traffic, or the other way around.

8. Shaw-Taylor, L., Davenport, R.J., Satchell, A.E.M., Wrigley, E.A., 'Parliamentary Enclosure and Population Growth.'

Historians have long-debated the effects of parliamentary enclosure on population growth. The most ambitious statistical investigation until now has been R.C. Allen's examination of the South East Midlands. However, whilst this covered a large number of parishes, this region is in no way representative of England and Wales as a whole. This paper will use newly created GIS datasets on parish population totals c.1680, 1801, 1811, 1821 and 1831 and a parish level GIS of parliamentary enclosures in England and Wales to re-examine the issues much more comprehensively than has ever been possible before. The national scope of the exercise means that it will be possible to assess whether the impact of parliamentary enclosure differed between regions.

9. Shaw-Taylor, L., Satchell, A.E.M., 'Parliamentary Enclosure and Social Change.'

Historians have also debated the impact of parliamentary enclosure on rural class structure. It has been variously suggested that enclosure (i) reduced the number of farmers by eliminating the smaller farmers (ii) turned many small farmers into labourers and hence contributed to the creation of a landless rural labour force (iii) greatly reduced the number of rural artisans and tradesmen (J.M. Martin). All of these propositions will be tested using new parish level datasets. These consist of (i) a parish level GIS dataset of all parliamentary enclosures (ii) a parish level dataset of male occupational structure c.1817 for all parishes in England and Wales (iii) a dataset of male occupational structure for approaching 2,000 parishes at various dates in the C18th. It will thus be possible to compare how occupational structures changed in rural parishes which (i) were enclosed by 1700 (ii) enclosed between 1700 and c.1817 (iii) remained unenclosed throughout.

10. Shaw-Taylor, L., Satchell, A.E.M., 'The rise and decline of markets 1600-1914.'

We have digitised over twenty lists of extant markets published between the early seventeenth and the early twentieth centuries. These show that the increase in the number of markets during the late medieval continued into the seventeenth century but that the number of markets was then stable from the late seventeenth century through to the middle of the nineteenth century when the number of markets declined precipitately. They also make clear that contrary to the assumptions of some early modern historians, not all places with markets were considered as towns by contemporaries even in the nineteenth century and nor should historians equate markets with towns. This paper will focus on documenting the growth and decline of markets over time and the geographical patterns of market villages and market towns. The relative importance of markets will be assessed by counting the numbers of carriers servicing each market in the nineteenth century. A follow-on paper will examine the decline of markets and will investigate the role of railways (which made it easy for customers to travel to better and bigger market centres further afield) and the rise of rural shops in the market shakeout of this period.

Book plans

1. Book Proposal 1: Satchell, A.E.M., 'A historical geography of the navigable waterways of England and Wales 1600-1835.'

The book will chart the changing geography and assesses the economic significance of the navigable waterways of England and Wales from 1600 to 1835. By 1835 canals and navigable rivers, in themselves and sometimes in combination with shipping by sea, were responsible for the moving of enormous quantities of bulk low-value goods through much of the English economy. GIS analysis in combination with other sources will show that though the network had changed massively in terms of its spatial extent and capacity but even at its peak was geographically restricted by a potent (and complex) combination of market demand, infrastructure costs, technology, hydrology and topography.

2. Book Proposal 2: edited by Bogart, D. and Shaw-Taylor, L. 'A new economic history of the pre-steam transport revolution in England and Wales.'

A central aim of a new funding application will be to write a book, The new economic history of the pre-steam transport revolution in England and Wales. The book will revisit how transport was transformed in the pre-steam era, c.1600 to c.1830, and how it contributed the transformation of the economy. We have important new things to contribute to this topic resulting from our projects. For example, we will describe and analyse the first multi modal model for England and Wales and study its implications for transport change and development. There are other reasons why this book is necessary. Several historians have written about the transport revolution but no book aiming to provide a comprehensive account has been published since Bagwell and Lyth 2006, Transport in Britain From Canal Lock To Gridlock and before that 1983, or before that Aldcroft and Freeman 1983, Transport in the Industrial Revolution. There have been books on individual transport sectors, like roads and shipping, (i.e. Gerhold and Armstrong) but these tend to focus on modes within transport. One implication is that transport has been ignored or relegated to a footnote in the recent histories of the Industrial Revolution. The most prominent recent books are by Robert Allen and Joel Mokyr, and neither treat transport in much depth. Tony Wrigley's work on energy points to the importance of transport, but more sustained analysis is needed. Moreover, the transport sector necessarily involves government, and the institutional histories of Britain's economy have only partially appreciated how transport fits into the broader story of institutional change.

The book will be edited by Bogart and Shaw Taylor and there will be six or seven contributors. Each chapter will have one or two lead authors, who will interact with the editor to ensure an integrated treatment of the subject. A provisional list of the chapters follows.

  1. The evolution of shipping
  2. Lighthouses and ports
  3. The evolution of road infrastructure
  4. The evolution of waterways
  5. Changing patterns of transport use and mode choice
  6. Transportation as an occupation
  7. Transport planning
  8. Modelling transport change and its effects on trade costs and economic geography