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Transport, urbanization and economic development in England and Wales c.1670-1911

Transport, urbanization and economic development in England and Wales c.1670-1911

Publication Plans

Below we have listed our current plans for publication from our three year Leverhulme Trust funded project which ended on 28 February 2017. Below we list our medium and long term publication plans as at 1 March 2017. We will update this page periodically. Our publication plans fall into two categories:

  • A medium term publication strategy (1-18) Seven working papers and three chapters for our online atlas are available as below.
  • A longer-term publication strategy (19-25), which would require an externally-funded research grant, either because more research is needed or because we need time from the research associates on the project for writing or data analysis. We plan to submit an application in the Autumn of 2017.

1. Bogart, D., Alvarez, E., You, X., Satchell, A.E.M., Shaw-Taylor, L. 'Railways and growth: evidence from nineteenth century England and Wales.'

Abstract
How do transport improvements affect the growth and spatial structure of population and employment? This paper answers these questions in the context of nineteenth century England and Wales. It analyzes the effect of railways on population and employment growth following a large expansion in the railway network during the 1840s. Endogeneity is addressed using a hypothetical network minimizing construction costs between large towns in 1801. Results show that population, secondary, and tertiary employment growth were significantly higher near railway stations and agriculture was significantly lower. Moreover, larger growth effects are found in higher density localities and with coal, suggesting railways magnified agglomeration economies and natural resource advantages. A final counterfactual shows population and employment growth
would have been 7 to 9% lower from 1851 to 1881 if the network remained at its smaller 1841 level.

This paper is under review and is currently available as a working paper.

2. Bogart, D., 'Turnpike roads of England and Wales.'

This atlas chapter is a public engagement piece and will be an entry in The Online Historical Atlas of Transport, Urbanization and Economic Development in England and Wales c.1680-1830, eds. L., Shaw-Taylor, Bogart, D., and Satchell, A.E.M.

Abstract
Turnpike trusts were authorized by acts of parliament to build, maintain and operate toll roads in Britain. These organizations were most prominent in the 18th and early 19th century prior to railways. They originated in the 17th century because local governments, specifically parishes, were unwilling or unable to invest in roads. This essay provides a new overview of turnpike trusts. It begins by discussing the origins of turnpike trusts and the legislation that created them. It then turns to a discussion of trust's diffusion, finances, and economic effects.

This chapter, whilst it may be subject to slight modification and the Atlas is not yet launched, is available online.

3. Satchell, A.E.M., 'Navigable waterways and the economy of England and Wales 1600-1835.'

This atlas chapter is a public engagement piece and will be an entry in The Online Historical Atlas of Transport, Urbanization and Economic Development in England and Wales c.1680-1830, eds. L., Shaw-Taylor, Bogart, D., and Satchell, A.E.M.

Abstract
This article is intended primarily as a general introduction to the subject of navigable waterways of England and Wales from 1600 to 1835 but set within the context of the wider economy. It also aims to show how the inter-relationship of navigable waterways with economic and demographic developments can be explored in new ways using the first ever time sensitive GIS (Geographical Information Systems) model of the waterways. The essay consists of five sections. This first section begins with gives a general context for the development of the network and outlines the GIS waterways model. In the second section the constraints of physical geography on what was and could be made navigable is discussed. The third section describes the growth and development of the network from 1600 to 1835. The fourth section discusses the significance of waterways concerning two important aspects of the English economy: urban growth and the role of waterways in fuelling the industrial revolution with coal. The fifth section concludes.

This chapter, whilst it may be subject to slight modification and the Atlas is not yet launched, is available online.

4. Alvarez, E., Bogart, D., Shaw-Taylor, L., Dunn, O., and Satchell, A.E.M., 'Growth before steam: A GIS approach to estimating multi-modal transport costs and productivity growth in England, 1680-1830.'

Abstract
How much did transport change and contribute to aggregate growth in the pre-steam era? This paper answers this question for England and Wales by estimating internal transport costs in 1680 and 1830. We build a multi-modal transport model of freight and passenger services between the most populous towns. The model allows transport by road, inland waterway, or
coastal shipping and switching of transport modes within journeys. The lowest money cost and travel time for passenger and freight is identified using network analysis tools in GIS. The model estimates show substantial reductions in the level of transport costs and its variability across space. The model's results also imply substantial productivity growth in transport,
equalling close to 0.8% per year. Plausible assumptions imply a social savings of 10.5% of national income by 1830.

This paper is currently available as a working paper.

5. Alvarez, E., Bogart, D., Dunn, O., Satchell, A.E.M., Shaw-Taylor, L., 'The cost of freight movements in the coastal shipping trade of England and Wales 1700-1910.'

Abstract
This paper focuses on the extent of improvements in coastal shipping, again with a focus on the differences between the pre-steam and steam era. Coastal shipping is worthy of special attention because of its importance in the transport of coal, the main source of fuel for the industrial revolution. Following previous scholars, we use differences in coal prices between ports near the major coalfields and ports elsewhere to measure "trade costs" in coastal shipping. The trade costs include pure freight cost of crew, provisions, and ship rental along with insurance, port charges, taxes, loading & unloading costs. We have collected data on prices for coal used in domestic heating for over 50 towns at three dates c.1700, c.1840, and c.1910. Our aim is to compare the coal price gaps at each date and measure the change over time. Moreover, we plan to directly measure some of the components like taxes and port charges.

We are in the process of writing this paper now and Dunn and Alvarez will be presenting the paper at a conference shortly.

6. Bogart, D., Lefors, M., Satchell, A.E.M. 'Intermodal Competition and Innovation in England's Canal Age.'

Abstract
Intermodal competition is perceived to be a key driver of efficiency in the transportation industry. The canal age in England provides one of the earliest considerable occurrences of intermodal competition, namely between canals and roads. We use directory data to determine the availability of canal transport services and the frequency of road transport services from London to 66 major cities in England. We employ a panel-data framework, regressing counts of road-based services on the availability of canal-based services, in order to test the hypothesis that canals displaced roads. We find that canals did displace road traffic, but only insofar as a particular service, the fly-boat, was available. Coasting vessels and traditional barges, on the other hand, did not displace road traffic. Additionally, we find that fly-boats access altered the service-mix of road traffic by encouraging innovation. These results are consistent with a theory which emphasizes within-mode innovation and market segmentation as critical elements in the process of intermodal competition.

7. Satchell, A.E.M., 'Identifying the Trunk Roads of Early Modern England and Wales.'

Abstract
Hitherto studies of the road transport network in Early Modern England and Wales and its relationship to economic and demographic change have suffered from lack of clear information concerning the geography of the network of what can be termed trunk roads - the primary long distance routes which connected cities, ports and large towns, and, as such, would have been likely to develop road passenger and carrying services early. This lack of information primarily reflects the fragmentary nature of surviving documentary and cartographic sources, and also the difficulty hitherto, of integrating the very substantial amounts of geographical information within this material in an effective analytical framework. This paper begins with a discussion of the earliest road atlas of England and Wales - John Ogilby's Britannia, published in 1675 and the degree to which its content can be regarded as indicative of main roads. The location of Ogilby roads are then compared, using the GIS, with other sources indicative of road travel from the late sixteenth century to c. 1715: 11,000 places with spare beds and stables as recorded in a national survey of 1686; 2,500 licensed chapmen 1686-7; places with scheduled road services from London (1637-1715); routes indicated in early road books, postal stages, and some early county maps. The paper concludes with an assessment of the degree to which Ogilby's routes actually did represent trunk roads and how much of this network Ogilby may have missed.

This paper is currently available as a working paper.

8. Dunn, O., 'A sea of troubles? Speed and irregularity in the coastal trades of seventeenth-century England and Wales.'

Abstract
The late John Armstrong showed us that coastal shipping was vital to Britain's Industrial Revolution. This system predated the railways and canals by centuries and long supported extensive coastal trades in coal, grain, and other goods. Unfortunately, we still know far too little about how services functioned, especially in earlier times. This paper examines some fundamental characteristics in the seventeenth century using new data and methods. Average sailing speeds, time ships spent in port, and general patterns of trade are established using local customs records that provided data detailing thousands of recorded departure and arrival dates of coasting ships. I analysed these using a geographical information system and panel-data analysis. The methods are described and new insights are given. Whilst seacoasts provided ample opportunity, observed coasting vessels exhibit severe timing irregularities and clearly operated in very challenging seas where delays and troubles were to be expected.

This paper has been accepted for publication and is currently available as a working paper.

9. Bogart, D., Dunn, O., Alvarez, E., and Shaw-Taylor, L., 'Speedier delivery: coastal shipping times and speeds during the Age of Sail.'

Abstract
Coastal shipping has been described as the 'vital spark' igniting economic growth in Britain. We provide the first quantitative analysis of long-term changes in journey times and speeds in English and Welsh coastal shipping during the Age of Sail. We use Board of Trade Crew Lists, which reveal timings for numerous coastal journeys from 1835 to 1845. These are compared with journey times in the mid to late 1600s drawn from coastal port books and St. Paul's Duty Books. The comparison also builds on a newly digitized coastal network, leading to calculations of journey speeds, defined as miles sailed per day, and voyage cycle times, defined as days between starting two identical voyages. We find evidence for significant changes in speed and time. Speeds were 2.90 times faster c.1840 compared to c.1660 and voyage times were 1.81 times longer c.1660 than c.1840. Average time spent in port changed less, remaining around 12 days. Our data provide evidence that total factor productivity in coastal shipping grew at a healthy rate prior to steam power. The findings have implications for the shipping productivity literature, which has largely focused on foreign trade, and to the industrial revolution literature more generally.

This paper is currently available as a working paper.

10. You, X., Alvarez, E., Bogart, D., Satchell, A.E.M., Shaw-Taylor, L., and Warde, P., 'A preliminary model of the transport of coal along the roads, canals, rivers, railways and coast of England and Wales in 1911.'

Abstract
We are in the process of creating a model of the flow of coal along the transport network of 1911. We will do this by first using a number of datasets to (i) estimate the tonnage of coal mined in every parish with a coal mine in 1911 (ii) estimating the consumption of coal in each of the 15,000 census parishes in England and Wales (iii) building a model of all port-to-port flows of coal in the UK (iv) building a model of the flow of coal along all railway lines. We will then establish how well the four sets of estimates fit with each other and modify the various estimates and models by an iterative process. This process will include comparing the models with definitely known flows along particular sections of the transport network. When the model is finished this will give us estimates of the tonnage of coal flowing along each section of railway line; navigable river, canal, main road and between ports. The intention is then to use the model to explore the alternative costs and physical implications in routing the same parish to parish flows along the transport networks prevailing in 1680 and 1830. This will allow us to allow us to test whether the physical implications (water flow requirements, number of horses require, quantity of oats to feed those horses) were in fact physically plausible. This approach will provide a quantitative alternative to the traditional social savings approach to assessing the impact of historical transport technology/infrastructure changes. We will be able to ask (and answer) the question as to whether the flow of goods (coal in this case) could have been actually have been moved around the earlier transport networks rather than simply assuming that it was physically possible. This working paper will document the construction of the model and undertake some preliminary counterfactual exercises. Further details about the project are available.

11. Bogart, D., Shaw-Taylor, L., and You, X., 'The development of the railway network in Britain 1825-1911.'

Abstract
This chapter is an entry in The Online Historical Atlas of Transport, Urbanization and Economic Development in England and Wales c.1680-1830, eds. L., Shaw-Taylor, Bogart, D., and Satchell, A.E.M. In due course the Atlas will feature articles on the evolution of all the major transport networks of the period: navigable rivers and canals; turnpike roads; railways; ports and coastal shipping routes. These articles will document the development to the networks over time and illustrate their relationship to population geography and urbanization. The article will be illustrated with numerous definitive maps of the networks over time. The Atlas will be open-access and each article will exist in four forms tailored to (i) an undergraduate and academic audience; (ii) sixth form level (key stage 5, ages 16-18): (iii) GCSE level (key stage 4, ages 14-16)); and (iv) key stage 3 (ages 11-14). Articles on waterways and turnpikes have also been written and, together with this chapter, are available online.

12. Alvarez, E., Bogart, D., Dunn, O., Shaw-Taylor, L., and You, X., 'Steam and Growth: A GIS approach to estimating multi-modal transport costs in England and Wales, 1830-1911.'

Abstract
This paper estimates transport costs in England and Wales in 1830 and 1911, in the era of steamships and railways. We build a multi-modal transport model of freight costs, fares, or travel times between the most populous towns. The model allows transport by road, railway, inland waterway, or coastal shipping and switching of transport modes within journeys. The lowest money cost and travel time for passenger and freight is identified using network analysis tools in GIS. We then compare how money and times changed with the improvements of roads, inland waterways, and coastal shipping. The results will identify the effects of steam on the productivity growth of transport.

13. Bogart, D., Satchell, A.E.M., Alvarez, E., Shaw-Taylor, L., and You, X., 'Turnpikes, canals, and economic growth in England and Wales, 1800-1850.'

Abstract
Improvements to roads and rivers and the construction of canals were the largest infrastructure investments in England during the industrial revolution. This paper estimates their effects on local population and employment growth using new GIS data covering all parishes in England and Wales or more than 9000 units. The main results show that greater access to the turnpike and inland waterway network around 1800 increased parish population growth from 1801 to 1851. Greater access to infrastructure also increased secondary and tertiary employment growth from 1817 to 1851. Greater access had the opposite effect on agriculture employment growth, we think because it was more land intensive. In a final exercise, we show that English and Welsh population growth would have been 3.9% lower between 1801 and 1851 if road and inland waterways were equal to the late 17th century. As this represents about 8% of the total, it appears that turnpike roads, rivers, and canals were one of several contributors to growth during the industrial revolution.

This paper is currently available as a working paper.

14. Bogart, D., Alvarez, E., Satchell, A.E.M., Shaw-Taylor, L., 'The social savings of pre-railway inland transport improvements in England and Wales.'

Abstract
Pigot's directories c.1830 detail all the scheduled weekly road and canal services between major towns around 1830. This paper uses our network analyst model to calculate the cost and time required for all these services and journeys by road and canal in 1830. It also calculates the costs and times assuming 1680 networks and technology. The difference in total times and costs provides an estimate of the social savings from inland transport improvements. Unlike earlier estimates, it builds the savings from traffic flows between individual towns.

15. Bogart, D., Satchell, A.E.M., Rosevear, A.R., Shaw-Taylor, L. 'London's transport connections, 1637-1827.'

Abstract
This paper revisits the changes in the capital's transport connections over the long-run. We focus on coach, carrier, barge, and vessel services drawn from London directories. We estimate numbers of services and their location over time. We are particularly interested in estimating the growing share of services between northern industrial areas, East Anglia, and west country textile regions.

16. Bogart, D., Satchell, A.E.M., Rosevear, A.R., Shaw-Taylor, L. 'Turnpikes and Traffic Growth in England and Wales.'

Abstract
This paper tests whether adoption of turnpikes increased road traffic or whether traffic growth led to turnpikes. It uses data on wagon and coach services stated in London directories as a measure of traffic. The routes taken by services have been linked to GIS data on road networks. It also uses GIS data on turnpike network to identify when particular roads came under the authority of the trust. A difference-in-difference estimator identifies whether the adoption of turnpikes increased traffic, or the other way around.

17. Bottomley, S., Bogart, D., Satchell, A.E.M., Shaw-Taylor, L. 'Transport networks and the adoption of steam engines in England and Wales, 1761-1800.'

Abstract
The steam engine was the quintessential invention of the Industrial Revolution. It revolutionized mining, textile manufacturing, transportation, and many other important economic sectors in England from the 18th century through the mid-19th century. This paper investigates whether transport networks influenced the spatial diffusion of steam engines, and compares their effects with endowments like having coal and being a coastal location. Our preliminary results show that parishes closer to turnpike roads and inland waterways in 1770 had a much higher probability of adopting at least one steam engine between 1770 and 1800. Having coal and being a coastal parish were also positively related. The findings shed new light on how transport improvements affected technology adoption during the industrial revolution.

This paper is currently available as a working paper.

18. Bogart, D., Alvarez, E., Dunn, O., Satchell, A.E.M., Shaw Taylor, L. 'Market access and urban growth in England and Wales during the pre-steam era.'

Abstract
The English and Welsh economy underwent a structural and spatial transformation between the late 17th and early 19th century. It became highly urbanized and, apart from London, its urban center shifted to the northwest. What caused these developments? This paper examines the role of market access. Market access changed greatly with infrastructure improvements and technological and organizational changes in transport. Many of these developments occurred before the era of railways and steam ships, when wagons, canals, and sail ships were dominant. We construct a measure of market access for nearly 150 towns in 1680 and 1830 using a new multi-modal transport model. We then estimate the effects of changes in market access and levels of market access on population growth. Our regression model controls for various town characteristics, including coal endowments. The results show that market access explains about 25% of the urban growth from 1680 to 1830 and nearly all the urban growth from 1831 to 1851. The results have implications for the drivers of the industrial revolution and more generally on economic growth.

This paper is currently available as a working paper.

19. Davenport, R.J., Shaw-Taylor, L., Wrigley, E.A., 'The urbanization of England and Wales c.1670-1911 reconsidered.'

Abstract
Work on the Leverhulme project has led us to question the accuracy of current estimates of urbanisation in the late seventeenth and early eighteenth century, which are derived from the Hearth Tax Returns and the Compton Census. A further issue is that data on the urbanisation rate for the C17th, C18th and C19th have been compiled using different inconsistent definitions of what constitutes a town in different sub-periods. Historians have used a number of different definitions: a settlement with a market; a population threshold of 2.500; a population threshold of 5,000; a population threshold of 10,000. However, settlements with markets were not necessarily towns, even in the nineteenth century and some villages had populations of over 2,500 in the C19th whilst some towns had populations below 2,500. The key contribution of this paper will be to provide four distinct sets of urbanisation rates c.1680-1911, at national and county levels, each constructed using one of the four definitions widely deployed in the literature. The appendix will provide a full list of all 'towns' on each definition over time.

20. Shaw-Taylor, L., Davenport, R.J., Satchell, A.E.M., Wrigley, E.A., 'Parliamentary Enclosure and Population Growth.'

Abstract
Historians have long-debated the effects of parliamentary enclosure on population growth. The most ambitious statistical investigation until now has been R.C. Allen's examination of the South East Midlands. However, whilst this covered a large number of parishes, this region is in no way representative of England and Wales as a whole. This paper will use newly created GIS datasets on parish population totals c.1680, 1801, 1811, 1821 and 1831 and a parish level GIS of parliamentary enclosures in England and Wales to re-examine the issues much more comprehensively than has ever been possible before. The national scope of the exercise means that it will be possible to assess whether the impact of parliamentary enclosure differed between regions.

21. Shaw-Taylor, L., Satchell, A.E.M., 'Parliamentary Enclosure and Social Change.'

Abstract
Historians have also debated the impact of parliamentary enclosure on rural class structure. It has been variously suggested that enclosure (i) reduced the number of farmers by eliminating the smaller farmers (ii) turned many small farmers into labourers and hence contributed to the creation of a landless rural labour force (iii) greatly reduced the number of rural artisans and tradesmen (J.M. Martin). All of these propositions will be tested using new parish level datasets. These consist of (i) a parish level GIS dataset of all parliamentary enclosures (ii) a parish level dataset of male occupational structure c.1817 for all parishes in England and Wales (iii) a dataset of male occupational structure for approaching 2,000 parishes at various dates in the C18th. It will thus be possible to compare how occupational structures changed in rural parishes which (i) were enclosed by 1700 (ii) enclosed between 1700 and c.1817 (iii) remained unenclosed throughout.

22. Shaw-Taylor, L., Satchell, A.E.M., 'The rise and decline of markets 1600-1914.'

Abstract
We have digitised over twenty lists of extant markets published between the early seventeenth and the early twentieth centuries. These show that the increase in the number of markets during the late medieval continued into the seventeenth century but that the number of markets was then stable from the late seventeenth century through to the middle of the nineteenth century when the number of markets declined precipitately. They also make clear that contrary to the assumptions of some early modern historians, not all places with markets were considered as towns by contemporaries even in the nineteenth century and nor should historians equate markets with towns. This paper will focus on documenting the growth and decline of markets over time and the geographical patterns of market villages and market towns. The relative importance of markets will be assessed by counting the numbers of carriers servicing each market in the nineteenth century. A follow on paper will examine the decline of markets and will investigate the role of railways (which made it easy for customers to travel to better and bigger market centres further afield) and the rise of rural shops in the market shakeout of this period.

23. Bogart, D., Alvarez, E., Keibek, S., Satchell, A.E.M., Shaw-Taylor, L. 'Roads, rivers, canals and and growth: evidence from eighteenth century England and Wales.'

This paper would employ the same methodology as paper 1 but for the eighteenth century looking at the impact of extensions to navigable rivers, the construction of canals and the developing turnpike road network on population geography and employment.

24. Book Proposal 1: Satchell, A.E.M., 'A historical geography of the navigable waterways of England and Wales 1600-1835.'

The book will chart the changing geography and assesses the economic significance of the navigable waterways of England and Wales from 1600 to 1835. By 1835 canals and navigable rivers, in themselves and sometimes in combination with shipping by sea, were responsible for the moving of enormous quantities of bulk low-value goods through much of the English economy. GIS analysis in combination with other sources will show that though the network had changed massively in terms of its spatial extent and capacity but even at its peak was geographically restricted by a potent combination of market demand, infrastructure costs and topography.

25. Book Proposal 2: Bogart, D., Alvarez, E., Dunn, O., Satchell, A.E.M., Shaw-Taylor, L., Xuesheng, Y., 'Transport improvements and economic growth in England and Wales, 1680-1911.'

Abstract
The question of how much transport contributed to the industrial revolution in England and Wales remains an open question. The role of transport will be re-examined in this book using innovations in Geographic Information Software (GIS). The chapters use GIS data to document changes in inland waterways, roads, railways, and coastal shipping networks in England and Wales between the late seventeenth century and approximately 1911. They also make use of archival sources to estimate changes in travel speeds and freight rates. The analysis focuses on town-level changes in transport costs and accessibility and aggregate summaries of productivity growth within and across transport modes.